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Plan Bay Area 2050+ integrates the sea level rise datasets used in the Sea Level Rise Framework, which were selected with guidance from technical experts. No single available data source represents the entirety of the nine-county Bay Area due to the unique hydrology of different areas. Consequently, two datasets were selected to represent best available modeling for the unique hydrology of the Bay:
U.S. Geological Survey Coastal Storm Modeling System (USGS): to represent inundation in the Outer Coast and the Bay.
Delta Stewardship Council’s Delta Adapts Flood Hazard Assessment (Delta Adapts): to represent inundation in the Delta.
The heights for resilience projects are based on the best available state guidance. The 2024 guidance from the California Ocean Protection Council (OPC) lays out a series of projections that incorporate both variations in risk, as well as in future emissions rates. OPC guides communities to plan for a minimum of 3.5 feet by 2050. Plan Bay Area 2050+ recognizes that many communities planning for sea level rise are considering permanent inundation, annual king tides, and large storms. Projects that protect areas that are flooded with 4.9 feet of water rise (combined permanent inundation with temporary flooding) are included in the Resilience Project List.
In the Resilience Project List created for Plan Bay Area 2050+, projects that address 0-1.6 feet of flooding are sorted into Bin 1 and are assumed to be built by 2035. Projects that address 1.6-4.9 feet are sorted into Bin 2 and are assumed to be built by 2050. This layer was used to sort projects into Bin 1.
For more information, see the Plan Bay Area 2050+ Technical Assumptions Report.